College Football Public Betting Trends & Money Percentages

If you can identify spots where most people’s opinions are influenced by other factors, it can be a great opportunity to bet against the public. In the past we’ve also written about how familiarity between teams often benefits the underdog inordinately, so we opted to utilize the “conference/non-conference” filter. The expectation was that both criteria would be profitable, but we would see an increased return on investment in conference games. It turned out that layering on the conference filter nearly doubled our ROI while improving our earningsby nearly three units. Since Baylor has received $290 out of $420 in total bets, its handle percentage is 69%, leaving a 31% handle percentage for Gonzaga. In a two-team game, both the bet percentage and handle percentage will always add up to 100%.

Reverse Line Movement

In addition, some sportsbooks might shade a line when they expect a lot of action on one side. Since online sports betting is regulated on a state-by-state basis, this can happen when local teams are playing. Betting against the public is an effective strategy for those who want to capitalise on inflated odds and find value in overlooked bets.

What can influence them to back an Under, in say college football is the weather forecast predicts, wind, rain, or snow, all of which could lead to lower scores. Unfortunately, there are no shortcuts on the road to becoming a winning bettor. If public betting trends were a pathway to finding edges, the majority of bettors would already be rich.

• In brief, contrarian parlay bets present a high-reward strategy by combining multiple bets against the majority’s predictions.
• The media, which over-hypes winning teams that score a lot of points, further inflates this human tendency.
• Just like point spreads, moneyline bets offer good opportunities to bet against the prevailing public opinion.
• Betting against the public can be a reasonable choice because the majority tends to bet on popular teams, leading to inflated lines and decreased value.

In terms of how to choose if you have a large number of possible choices, take the Top 5 in differentials, that is the safest route. Though you will weekly find a contest that fits from the MAC or C-USA, those are low-volume bet conflicts. For those unfamiliar, reverse line movement is when the vast majority of bets come in on one side, but the line moves in the other direction.

Ultimately public betting isn’t entirely foolproof – there are plenty of chinks in the armor. Following public betting trends means you agree with the majority of the general public regarding an event’s outcome. This works the other way, too, of course, with the sportsbooks also adjusting the odds if a popular bet receives a large amount of public support. This can make it more tricky for customers to find value and can lead to more profitable opportunities for betting against the public. Another aspect of public betting trends is that they can be reflected in the odds. They affect the odds for a game/event in different ways, from a customer’s standpoint, whether positively or negatively.

Basically, this page is tracking the amount of money bet on each team in a college basketball game. Sportsbooks monitor the amount of money their customers have wagered on NCAAB teams (in order to effectively manage their exposure) and then share that information with SBD. Your go-to source for expert insights, practical tips, and in-depth analysis to enhance your sports betting journey.

Identify strengths and vulnerabilities that could influence betting results. Proceed by combining your NFL knowledge with the historical data and the data from the betting databases. By heading over to the NFL consensus page on each of these betting sites, you can check the NFL consensus picks and let the betting public help you craft your NFL picks for the weekend. Although a simple statistic for the data-trained eye, public betting can provide valuable insights and help you craft your betting strategy, as long as you avoid following it at all costs. This includes factors such as team news, injuries, weather, form, and head-to-head records, among others.

MyTopSportsbooks reviews and recommends sportsbooks independently.We might earn a comission if you sign up to a sportsbook using our links. A converted touchdown, which is worth 7 points, means that 7 is another key number in NFL. When betting on the road favourite, the public may ignore the importance of home advantage in favour of the big name on the road. We’ll break down a few examples of good opportunities to bet against the public to show you exactly what we’re talking about. There are many different types of bets that can be used effectively to bet against the public, taking into account the above factors. There are tons of bets like this available on every game, in every sport.

What are the benefits of betting against the public?

Of course, the more people that feel a certain outcome will come to fruition, the more confident you might be in your selection. But just because an overriding majority believes one betting outcome will happen doesn’t automatically mean it will win. Once you have mastered public betting and fully understand what it is and what it means, you can certainly use it to your advantage. In the 2021 season, the favorite covered 442 games ATS and lost 422 games ATS, which equals a 51.16% win percentage against the spread . Blindly betting against the public, particularly when you’re first learning a new skill is not a smart idea.

Analyzing these public betting trends can help bettors make more educated and informed decisions rather than just fancying a team to win with little evidence or data to support that argument. officialstakebet.com Below that, the Atlanta Hawks vs Cleveland Cavaliers is far closer according to public betting percentages. 44% of bettors see the Cavaliers covering the spread, meanwhile 56% of gamblers expect the Hawks +1 to come to fruition. If you aren’t checking public betting percentages and trends until the day of the event, you will likely have missed the best prices.

Fast-burning tales typically produce the strongest short-term contrarian possibilities since public reaction tends to overshoot. The social elements of these applications make them ideal for contrarian bettors. When an app displays to you that all of your friends are betting on the Cowboys or that 85% of users are supporting the Lakers, it produces a peer pressure effect that magnifies public emotion. It’s as if the applications are doing half the job for you, plainly indicating where the mob is going so you can walk in the opposite direction. Consider what happens when a top quarterback is injured and then makes a stunning comeback.

The temptation to renounce your contrarian stance and follow the majority becomes overpowering. Backing home underdogs in the Premier League is a good option to bet against the public. The Premier League is a complicated and long competition, and the popularity of big names like Manchester United can distort the odds when they play on the road against a mid-table underdog.

Thus, the NFL has more of the public betting on it, leading to more reliable public betting percentages and trends. We’re going to be honest with you, betting against the public is just like any other sports betting strategy – sometimes it works, and sometimes it doesn’t. This is true for the same reasons that computer picks don’t work every single time either – human unpredictability.

Something as simple as recognizing a star player can be hugely important in determining how the public bets. Plenty of people will back teams with star players like, for example, LeBron James. Of course, star players have a big influence on the outcome of a game, but the extent of their influence can be distorted.